Bangladesh’s only Nobel laureate in economics and Chief Adviser of the interim government, Professor Dr Muhammad Yunus, now stands at a historic crossroads. Speculation surrounding the upcoming election is intensifying amid the chaotic resurgence of fallen fascist forces, internal conflicts among the powers behind the historic mass uprising, and competing party demands over the election process.
Disagreements over the July Charter, delays in justice, and the government’s apparent weakness have all fueled growing rumours. Against this backdrop, the million-dollar question now looms large in the public's mind—will elections take place in February next year, as announced after Professor Yunus’s London meeting with BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman? Or will elections be delayed under various pretexts to smooth the return of fallen fascist forces?
Following the Liberation War of 1971, Abdur Razzaq, then a professor of political science at Dhaka University, was asked for his views on nation-building. He advised the then-head of government, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, to build a strong opposition party.
But Sheikh Mujib failed to imagine a political landscape beyond himself. He began to fear dissent, criticism, and elections. The general election held on March 7, 1973, earned him the label of vote robber. That eventually led to BAKSAL and a bloodstained path of mass uprisings that ousted him from power.
In similar fashion, years of suppressed public frustration over the loss of voting rights eventually turned Bangladesh into a dormant Mount Vesuvius. The devastating eruption came on August 5, 2024, forcing Sheikh Hasina to flee to India to save her life.
A few months ago, our neighbouring country Sri Lanka witnessed a mass uprising. Much like Sheikh Hasina, the Sri Lankan ruler at the time had to flee. But Sri Lanka’s interim government quickly held an election and returned power to elected representatives. Now burdened by debt, Sri Lanka is on the path to becoming an economically strong nation.
In contrast, Egypt’s post-uprising situation closely mirrors Bangladesh's. Despite the opposition's many demands and movements, the government under President Mohamed Morsi was weak. As a result, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was able to seize power effortlessly.
Several recent developments mirror Bangladesh’s current state. The economy is fragile, there is no new investment, trade with the US remains deadlocked, government activities are stalled, the Rohingya crisis persists, the bureaucracy is in disarray, and law and order has collapsed.
Amid all this, the interim government is about to complete its first year. Throughout the year, promises of reforms and justice have been repeated. Yet justice and reform are continuous processes and cannot be imposed forcefully. Broadly speaking, political parties have already agreed on implementing the proposed reforms.
There was also broad consensus on signing the July Charter. Nevertheless, efforts to seize public power under the guise of reform and justice—denying the people's voting rights for 17 years—seem reminiscent of the fallen Sheikh Hasina’s so-called development doctrine. She used to say, “Development first, voting rights later.” Now, it is being said, “Justice and reform first, elections later.”
Debapriya Bhattacharya, a fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), recently said it is time to consider an exit for the interim government. This observation is vital. Sheikh Hasina was riding a tiger—there was no peaceful path for her to hand over power. The honeymoon period of the current interim government is also over. In the past year, various allegations have emerged against many advisers of this government.
Stories of extortion and corruption involving student advisers and student leaders within the government are now widely discussed among the public. The misuse of power by one student adviser’s father is no longer a secret. In this situation, a dignified exit and transfer of power to the people is the only way forward for Bangladesh.
Professor Muhammad Yunus is deeply aware of history. He knows how Hamid Karzai failed to rebuild Afghanistan despite US support. He knows how Iraq was devastated after the US invasion, with no chance of recovery. Syria too, plunged into civil war after the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
Examples like Sri Lanka’s recovery are before us. So is the leadership of Nelson Mandela in South Africa. Yet we have also seen the fate of Myanmar’s Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
It is hoped that Professor Yunus will take the right decision, informed by these precedents. Bangladesh’s social realities and political history will guide him. But the greatest lesson history offers is that we do not learn from history.
MSK/
