A drastic reduction in U.S. humanitarian assistance during Donald Trump’s presidency may result in more than 14 million preventable deaths by 2030, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal. 

The report underscores that nearly one-third of these projected deaths could involve children.

Research co-author Davide Rasella, of the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, described the scale of the impact as comparable to that of a global pandemic or major armed conflict. 

“The cuts threaten to abruptly halt — and even undo — two decades of health gains among vulnerable groups,” he stated.

In March, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the Trump administration had terminated over 80% of initiatives under the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). 

The move formed part of a broader federal downsizing strategy previously driven by billionaire Elon Musk’s cost-efficiency agenda.

Using data from 133 countries, researchers estimated that USAID programs helped avert some 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021. 

However, modeling based on the administration’s 83% cut in aid funding predicts a reversal in that trajectory, potentially resulting in 14 million additional deaths by 2030—including more than 4.5 million children under the age of five.

The United States, historically the largest contributor to global humanitarian relief, has operated in over 60 countries—primarily through independent contractors. 

While around 1,000 aid programs remain intact and are to be overseen jointly by the State Department and Congress, UN officials report that conditions in affected regions continue to deteriorate.

A United Nations representative recently told the BBC that food shortages in Kenyan refugee camps have escalated due to reduced U.S. aid, leaving hundreds of thousands facing starvation. 

BBC coverage from Kakuma, in northwestern Kenya, included distressing footage of a severely malnourished infant suffering from wrinkled, peeling skin and near-total immobility.

The Lancet report coincides with the largest UN-led global aid summit in a decade, currently taking place in Seville, Spain, where international leaders are gathered to reassess the future of humanitarian assistance.

Source: BBC

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