Leaders and activists of the banned Awami League, and its banned affiliated organisations, including Chhatra League, launched several attacks centering on the July march of the National Citizen Party (NCP) in Gopalganj. Although the NCP managed to carry out its programme, incidents of violence occurred both before and after their rally. 

In addition, Awami League activists vandalised the vehicle convoy of the Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) and also attacked and set fire to a police vehicle.

Political analysts believe that the attack by leaders and activists of the banned Chhatra League, the outlawed Awami League, and its affiliates during the NCP’s programme on Wednesday (16 July) could have significant implications for Bangladeshi politics. 

According to analysts, the recent public mobilisation seen during the NCP’s July march in northern Bangladesh had raised hopes about the party’s growing strength in the political arena. There was a perception that the party was gradually building a base among the public. However, the Gopalganj incident may dampen those expectations. The NCP failed to mount any resistance during the Awami League's attack in Gopalganj, exposing its organisational vulnerability to the public. Several party leaders had to leave Gopalganj with military assistance.

Analysts point to several factors behind the NCP’s precarious position. In July–August 2024, the current leaders of the NCP led a mass uprising. The popularity they enjoyed during that time appeared to have waned, as reflected in the relatively low turnout at the Gopalganj rally. The lack of a large public gathering reportedly emboldened members of the banned Awami League and all banned organisations, including Chhatra League, to carry out the attacks.

Another significant factor is the growing distance between the NCP and the country's main opposition party, the BNP. The party's weakening ties with the BNP are seen as having diminished its strength. Analysts suggest that the absence of BNP’s backing gave confidence to the fallen Awami League’s activists to launch attacks on the NCP.

The back-to-back attacks and the blockade of the NCP’s rally venue in Gopalganj may serve to encourage similar actions by Awami League supporters across the country. Analysts warn that if such incidents spread nationwide, they could trigger political unrest, potentially opening the door for the reintegration of the fallen Awami League.

Analysts also believe that the growing rift between the BNP and the NCP may be encouraging the banned Chhatra League and Awami League to continue such attacks.

On the other hand, if the NCP leadership realises that distancing itself from the BNP is pushing the party toward an existential crisis, it could shift the political trajectory. Reconciliation between the two could still be possible if both sides act on this realisation.

The National Citizen Party emerged on 28 February under the leadership of a group of young activists from the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement and the National Citizens’ Committee, both of which had led the anti-autocracy movement against Sheikh Hasina. The party is led by Convenor Nahid Islam and Member Secretary Akhtar Hossain. Its central leadership includes prominent July uprising organisers such as Samanta Sharmin, Dr. Tasnim Jara, Nasiruddin Patwari, Hasnat Abdullah, and Sarjis Alam.

According to analysts, several factors contributed to the sharp decline in the popularity of the uprising’s leaders in less than a year. These include internal disunity, divisions among the forces behind the uprising, lack of coordination with parties like the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, and the involvement of some leaders in controversial activities. In addition, failures on various fronts have also weakened the interim government’s popularity, further contributing to the NCP’s decline.

Govt responsible for failure to hold normal gatherings
When asked whether the Gopalganj incident could be a political turning point, Ruhin Hossain Prince, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB) and coordinator of the Left Democratic Alliance, told Banglanews: “A political party could not hold a peaceful rally—this failure lies with the government. Had the government taken preventive measures, such incidents might not have occurred. After the mass uprising brought about change in the country, the march toward elections began. Incidents like this could be exploited by reactionary forces to disrupt that journey. Now, all parties must act responsibly—this is the need of the hour.”

Bangladesh JaSad General Secretary Nazmul Haque Prodhan told Banglanews: “Such destructive acts are always condemnable. Any political party has the right to hold peaceful meetings and rallies. The creation of tension even before a programme is carried out is not a good sign. It’s difficult to predict what kind of reaction or consequences this will generate—it will become clear later.”

Aminul Haque, Convenor of BNP’s Dhaka North city unit, told Banglanews: “What happened in Gopalganj today is utterly disgraceful. That the collaborators of a fallen fascist government would launch such an attack on a political programme is undoubtedly alarming.”

When asked if the Gopalganj incident could alter the political landscape, he replied, “The people of Bangladesh were united against fascist Sheikh Hasina during the July uprising—and they still are. So, I don’t think this incident will significantly impact national politics.”

BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed told Banglanews, “We won’t comment on this matter at this moment. The issue is currently under discussion within the party. We will provide a statement later.”

SMS/